⚔️ Toram Refining Guide

Fully verified · All 12 ores × 15 levels match confirmed data · Correct degrade model

⚠️ All formulas, rates, and values are sourced from community research and include the author's own assumptions. This is not official Asobimo data and is not guaranteed to be accurate. Use at your own discretion.

📐 Formulas (Tier 4, all skills Lv10)

TEC smith (all skills Lv10):
  rate = clamp( round( (base_val + ⌊TEC/4⌋ + 50) × 0.85 ), 1, 100 ) + pity_pts/150
  SB_base=50, multiplier=0.85, TEC=255 → TEC/4=63. Verified against confirmed table.

LUK smith (Refine Equipment Lv1 only — no Mid/High/Expert's Refinement):
  rate = clamp( round( base_val × 0.52 ), 1, 100 ) + pity_pts/150
  SB_base=2 (RE Lv1), multiplier=0.52 (0.5 + 2%), TEC=0. Hits 1% floor at +7→+8.

Pity: mithril ore = +4 pts/attempt  ·  150 pts = +1% flat  ·  ~38 attempts/tier

Degrade on fail:  P(degrade|fail) = 0.50 × max(0, 1 − LUK/340)
  LUK=0 (TEC): 50%  |  LUK=255 alone: 12.5%
  Anti-Deg items stack multiplicatively: e.g. LUK=255 + 75% Anti-Deg → 12.5% × 25% = 3.1%  |  only a 100% Insurance Ticket reaches 0%
Degrade assumptions (user-specified):
Base P(degrade|fail) = 50% for all slot counts. Distribution given degrade occurs:
0-slot: always −1  |  1-slot: 50% (−1) + 50% (−2)  |  2-slot: ~33.3% each of (−1), (−2), (−3)
LUK prevention (LUK/3.4%) applied multiplicatively to base. Anti-Deg items apply a further multiplicative reduction on top of LUK.

📊 Table 1 — Success Rates: Mithril Ore, TEC 255 vs LUK 0 (pity = 0)

Verified against confirmed image data. LUK column = 0 TEC contribution (LUK does not affect success rate, only degrade). Rec columns show best char per slot count based on expected ore cost.
Level TEC 255LUK 0 TEC Edge Rec
0-slot
Rec
1-slot
Rec
2-slot

📊 Table 2 — Expected Ore to Advance 1 Level (Mithril Ore, pity = 0)

Each pair of columns (TEC / LUK) is for one slot count. Outlined border = winner for that slot. = divergent: expected levels lost per fail exceeds gain rate; pity required to stabilise.

Each cell is the expected ore cost for that single transition only (e.g. the +B→+A row is the cost to go from +B to +A, not from +0 to +A). Values are not cumulative.

How the value is calculated: each attempt costs 1 ore. On success (probability p) you advance. On fail, you may degrade and lose levels, which costs extra ore to recover. The formula is:
  E = (1/p) / (1 − (1−p) × P(degrade) × avg_levels_lost)
But this is only an approximation — the tables use the exact Markov chain, solving all 14 levels simultaneously so that the true recovery cost of each lost level is accounted for.

Note: these values assume the same char is used throughout, including recovery from degrades. See Table 2c for the optimal two-char strategy where TEC handles recovery at mid-levels.
Level 0-slot 1-slot 2-slot
TECLUK TECLUK TECLUK

📊 Table 2b — Expected Ore to Advance 1 Level, by Pity Tier (Mithril Ore)

Same structure as Table 2 — each cell is the per-transition cost only, not cumulative. Outlined border = winner for that slot.

Pity adds a flat % bonus to success rate (+1% per 150 points). At high levels where both TEC and LUK are floored at 1%, pity is the only way to reduce cost. Notice how the +A→+S and +B→+A rows shrink dramatically as pity increases, while low-level rows (where TEC already has high success) barely change.
Pity Tier:
Level TEC% LUK% 0-slot 1-slot 2-slot
TECLUK TECLUK TECLUK

📊 Table 2c — Expected Ore to Advance 1 Level: Optimal Recovery (Mithril Ore)

Same format as Table 2b — each cell is the per-transition cost only, not cumulative. Outlined border = winner for that slot.

What makes this different: Table 2b assumes the same char handles recovery after a degrade. This table uses the locally optimal char for each recovery level. For example, if LUK is attacking +B→+A and degrades to +C, the cost to recover +C→+B is calculated using TEC (which has 11% at that step) rather than LUK (which has 1%). Each level's recovery cost is set to whichever char — TEC or LUK — has the lower expected cost there, solved simultaneously across all levels.
Pity Tier:
Transition TEC% LUK% 0-slot 1-slot 2-slot
TECLUK TECLUK TECLUK

📊 Table 2d — Expected Ore: LUK + Anti-Deg, Optimal Recovery (Mithril Ore)

Same format as Table 2c — each cell is the per-transition cost only, not cumulative. Outlined border = winner for that slot.

The LUK column adds an Anti-Degradation item (75% extra prevention), reducing the LUK degrade chance from 12.5% to 3.125%. Like Table 2c, recovery after a degrade uses the locally optimal char at each recovery level — so if LUK+AD degrades and TEC is cheaper for the recovery climb, TEC's cost is used.
Pity Tier:
Transition TEC% LUK% 0-slot 1-slot 2-slot
TECLUK+AD TECLUK+AD TECLUK+AD

📊 Table 2e — Expected Ore: LUK (low levels) + LUK+AD (+B→+S only), Optimal Recovery

Same format as 2c and 2d — each cell is the per-transition cost only, not cumulative. Outlined border = winner for that slot.

Models the practical strategy where you only use Anti-Deg items for the two most expensive steps (+B→+A and +A→+S), saving anti-deg costs at lower levels. Below +B, plain LUK is used. Optimal cross-char recovery applies throughout.
Pity Tier:
Transition TEC% LUK% 0-slot 1-slot 2-slot
TECLUK(+AD hi) TECLUK(+AD hi) TECLUK(+AD hi)

📊 Table 3 — Expected Ore: +A → +S by Pity Tier & Slot Count

This table shows only the +A→+S transition cost (one step), broken down by pity tier. It is equivalent to the +A→+S row in Table 2b, but presented as a standalone summary. Values are not cumulative from +0.

At +A/+S both TEC and LUK have the same success rate (1% + pity), so success rate is not the differentiator here — only the degrade chance is. Outlined border = winner per slot. = practically divergent (cost >5000 ore). The exact model shows that without pity, both chars diverge — failing at +A drops you to +B, which is also ~1% with the same degrade risk, trapping you in a loop. Pity is required to escape this.
Pity
Tier
PointsRate % 0-slot 1-slot 2-slot
TECLUK TECLUK TECLUK

📊 Table 4 — TEC 255 Success Rates: All Main Ores (pity = 0)

Use this to pick ore. Higher grade = better success rate at the same refine level, at higher cost per ore.
Level Mithril Ore
grade 7
Ori Ore
grade 10
Orichalcum
grade 11
HP Ori
grade 12